NFL 2026 season · Sept 9–27, 2026
Who beat the favorites in September 2026: NFL expert picks
The month in short
4 of 23 NFL experts with at least 20 scored straight-up picks in September 2026 games won more games than picking every favorite in the same games would have.
- Picking the favorite is hard to beat: in the 40 games of September 2026 we hold a price for, the favorite won 26 of 40 decided (65%).
- The rule is the same for everyone: the expert's record and the favorite's record in the same games, at the same no-margin market prices. Games without a price are left out of both.
- Only the experts who did better are named here. Every expert's full record is on their own page.
Show as table
| More wins than every favorite | Experts | Named |
|---|---|---|
| +1 | 4 | Brooke Cersosimo, Mike Clay, Pamela Maldonado, Tyler Sullivan |
| 0 | 5 | |
| −1 | 7 | |
| −2 | 3 | |
| −3 | 1 | |
| −4 | 2 | |
| −6 | 1 |
The experts who did better
| Expert | Record | Every favorite | More wins | Market-adjusted points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Sullivan CBS Sports | 27-13 | 26-14 | +1 | +6.5 points 40 picks scored · 40 of 48 with recorded odds |
| Pamela Maldonado ESPN | 25-15 | 24-16 | +1 | +2.6 points 40 picks scored · 40 of 48 with recorded odds |
| Brooke Cersosimo NFL.com | 25-15 | 24-16 | +1 | +1.7 points 40 picks scored · 40 of 48 with recorded odds |
| Mike Clay ESPN | 25-15 | 24-16 | +1 | +0.6 points 40 picks scored · 40 of 48 with recorded odds |
How we count
- Favorite: the side the market price at the time of the pick, with the bookmaker margin taken out, made more likely to win. The price is the one that existed at or before the pick; for picks read from an outlet's page after the game, the start of that NFL week.
- All picks we hold count, including picks read from the outlets' pages after the games, as on the leaderboard; each pick is labeled on the expert's page.
- Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at that fair price: a win adds what the price paid, a loss takes away 1, a push counts 0.