NFL 2026 season · Oct 1–26, 2026 · month in progress
Who beat the favorites in October 2026 so far: NFL expert picks
The month so far
12 of 113 NFL experts with at least 20 scored straight-up picks in October 2026 games so far won more games than picking every favorite in the same games would have.
- Picking the favorite is hard to beat: in the 59 games of October 2026 we hold a price for, the favorite won 35 of 58 decided (60.3%).
- The rule is the same for everyone: the expert's record and the favorite's record in the same games, at the same no-margin market prices. Games without a price are left out of both.
- Only the experts who did better are named here. Every expert's full record is on their own page.
Show as table
| More wins than every favorite | Experts | Named |
|---|---|---|
| +3 | 2 | Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, Vinnie Iyer |
| +2 | 5 | Gilberto Manzano, Kalyn Kahler, Lindsey Thiry, Mike Clay, Warren Ludford |
| +1 | 5 | Adam Kaufman, Bill Bender, Jamey Eisenberg, Jared Mueller, Tom Brolley |
| 0 | 6 | |
| −1 | 14 | |
| −2 | 10 | |
| −3 | 23 | |
| −4 | 17 | |
| −5 | 12 | |
| −6 | 10 | |
| −7 | 6 | |
| −9 | 3 |
The experts who did better
| Expert | Record | Every favorite | More wins | Market-adjusted points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Iyer Sporting News | 29-13-1 | 26-16-1 | +3 | +9.3 points 43 picks scored · 43 of 43 had a market price · above zero beats the betting odds |
| Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz USA Today | 29-15-1 | 26-18-1 | +3 | +5.2 points 45 picks scored · 45 of 46 had a market price |
| Warren Ludford Daily Norseman | 30-12-1 | 28-14-1 | +2 | +11.9 points 43 picks scored · 43 of 43 had a market price |
| Gilberto Manzano Sports Illustrated | 20-8-1 | 18-10-1 | +2 | +7.6 points 29 picks scored · 29 of 29 had a market price |
| Kalyn Kahler ESPN | 37-20-1 | 35-22-1 | +2 | +7.5 points 58 picks scored · 58 of 59 had a market price |
| Lindsey Thiry ESPN | 37-21-1 | 35-23-1 | +2 | +3.5 points 59 picks scored · 59 of 59 had a market price |
| Mike Clay ESPN | 37-21-1 | 35-23-1 | +2 | +3.0 points 59 picks scored · 59 of 59 had a market price |
| Jared Mueller Dawgs By Nature | 28-14-1 | 27-15-1 | +1 | +9.8 points 43 picks scored · 43 of 43 had a market price |
| Tom Brolley Fantasy Points | 28-14-1 | 27-15-1 | +1 | +5.2 points 43 picks scored · 43 of 43 had a market price |
| Jamey Eisenberg CBS Sports | 38-20-1 | 37-21-1 | +1 | +3.7 points 59 picks scored · 59 of 59 had a market price |
| Bill Bender Sporting News | 18-10-1 | 17-11-1 | +1 | +2.6 points 29 picks scored · 29 of 29 had a market price |
| Adam Kaufman USA Today | 27-17-1 | 26-18-1 | +1 | — |
How we count
- Favorite: the side the market price at the time of the pick, with the bookmaker margin taken out, made more likely to win. The price is the one that existed at or before the pick; for picks read from an outlet's page after the game, the start of that NFL week.
- All picks we hold count, including picks read from the outlets' pages after the games, as on the leaderboard; each pick is labeled on the expert's page.
- Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at that fair price: a win adds what the price paid, a loss takes away 1, a push counts 0.
How points work · All monthly reports · Leaderboard
The numbers behind this report
- 314 tracked experts at 85 outlets have graded picks on October 2026 games so far; 287 of them, at CBS Sports, ESPN, NFL.com, Daily Norseman, Pride of Detroit, The Dallas Morning News, Draft Utopia, Fantasy Points, Gridiron Experts, USA Today, Bleeding Green Nation, Sports Illustrated, Dawgs By Nature, Big Blue View, The Phinsider, Sporting News, SB Nation, Silver And Black Pride, Covers, Los Angeles Times, PhillyVoice, Mile High Report, Canal Street Chronicles, ProFootballTalk, Fantasy Alarm, Turf Show Times, Sportsnaut, Ringer Wise Guys, Arrowhead Pride, Houston Chronicle, The Baltimore Banner, Pats Pulpit, The Arizona Republic, Still Curtain, Cat Scratch Reader, Windy City Gridiron, Broncos On SI, Chris Simms Unbuttoned, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Big Cat Country, Blogging The Boys, Bucs Nation, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Titans Wire, Behind the Steel Curtain, News4JAX, Pewter Report, Baltimore Beatdown, DallasCowboys.com, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Chiefs Wire, IndyStar, The Falcoholic, The Tennessean, Bolts From The Blue, Gang Green Nation, The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Toro Times, 12th Man Rising, Bear Goggles On, Field Gulls, Inside the Iggles, Lombardi Ave, Seahawks On SI, Who Dat Dish, BuffaLowDown, Horseshoe Heroes, Lions Wire, Music City Miracles, Raising Zona, Ramblin' Fan, SideLion Report, The Boston Globe, The Florida Times-Union, The Pewter Plank and Titans On SI, made straight-up picks.
- The 59 games, with every expert pick and the final score, are on the Week 4, Week 5, Week 6 and Week 7 pages.
- They made 5,330 straight-up picks in 59 games; 5,316 had a market price at the time of the pick and count here.
- 113 of them had at least 20 scored straight-up picks and are compared; the other 174 are not part of this month's comparison.
- 3,810 of the 5,330 were recorded or timestamped before kickoff; the other 1,520 were read after the games, read from the outlets' own pages.
Limits of this report
- One month (NFL Weeks 4–7): each compared expert has 26 to 59 scored picks; full-season records are on each expert's page.
- Straight-up picks from CBS Sports, ESPN, NFL.com, Daily Norseman, Pride of Detroit, The Dallas Morning News, Draft Utopia, Fantasy Points, Gridiron Experts, USA Today, Bleeding Green Nation, Sports Illustrated, Dawgs By Nature, Big Blue View, The Phinsider, Sporting News, SB Nation, Silver And Black Pride, Covers, Los Angeles Times, PhillyVoice, Mile High Report, Canal Street Chronicles, ProFootballTalk, Fantasy Alarm, Turf Show Times, Sportsnaut, Ringer Wise Guys, Arrowhead Pride, Houston Chronicle, The Baltimore Banner, Pats Pulpit, The Arizona Republic, Still Curtain, Cat Scratch Reader, Windy City Gridiron, Broncos On SI, Chris Simms Unbuttoned, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Big Cat Country, Blogging The Boys, Bucs Nation, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Titans Wire, Behind the Steel Curtain, News4JAX, Pewter Report, Baltimore Beatdown, DallasCowboys.com, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Chiefs Wire, IndyStar, The Falcoholic, The Tennessean, Bolts From The Blue, Gang Green Nation, The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Toro Times, 12th Man Rising, Bear Goggles On, Field Gulls, Inside the Iggles, Lombardi Ave, Seahawks On SI, Who Dat Dish, BuffaLowDown, Horseshoe Heroes, Lions Wire, Music City Miracles, Raising Zona, Ramblin' Fan, SideLion Report, The Boston Globe, The Florida Times-Union, The Pewter Plank and Titans On SI only: no other outlet in our record has straight-up picks on October 2026 games.
- 14 straight-up picks had no market price at the time of the pick and are left out of both records.
Other months: September 2026.