2026–27 season · 155 graded against the spread picks · 65 graded over/under picks
NBA picks against the spread and over/under, 2026–27
Compare the next slate's NBA point spread and over/under picks across 19 tracked sources, plus season ATS and total standings. Every spread and total pick is graded against the exact number printed by that source (or recorded when the pick was captured), including overtime.
We record the picks that outlets, channels and analysts publish and grade each one against the final score. We don't make picks, we don't sell picks, and we don't link to betting pages.
Spread and over/under picks · Wednesday, Nov 4, 2026
| Game | Start | Spread split | Lines | O/U split | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers at Pistons | Wed, Nov 4, 7 p.m. ET | PHI 0 · DET 1 | DET -1.5 | Over 0 · Under 0 | — |
| Hornets at Nets | Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 p.m. ET | CHA 0 · BKN 0 | — | Over 0 · Under 0 | — |
| Cavaliers at Thunder | Wed, Nov 4, 8 p.m. ET | CLE 0 · OKC 0 | — | Over 0 · Under 0 | — |
| Timberwolves at Rockets | Wed, Nov 4, 8:30 p.m. ET | MIN 0 · HOU 0 | — | Over 0 · Under 0 | — |
| Mavericks at Spurs | Wed, Nov 4, 9:30 p.m. ET | DAL 0 · SAS 0 | — | Over 0 · Under 0 | — |
Recording history · 276 against the spread picks and 130 over/under picks
- 308 Recorded before tip-off (76%)
- 21 Timestamped before tip-off (5%)
- 77 Read after the game (19%)
Read after the game: the pick as the source shows it now, read after the game started, with no verifiable pre-game stamp. These picks are shown and counted in recording history only; they do not enter records, points or leaderboards. What the labels mean →
Spread leaders by market-adjusted points
3 sources with at least 15 graded spread picks.
Market-adjusted points (priced picks only) · 3
| Place | Source | Graded W-L-P | Win % | Priced picks | Points | Per pick | CLV | Avg fair win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basketball Sphere Web Panel · 7 writers | 20-19-0 | 51.3% 95% likely range 36–66% | 36 of 39 | +0.7 | +0.02 | -6.5% | 55% |
| 2 | Pickswise Web Panel · 8 writers | 12-11-1 | 52.2% 95% likely range 33–71% | 24 of 24 | +0.6 | +0.03 | -1.4% | 51% |
| 3 | Big Al Web Panel · 11 writers | 8-9-0 | 47.1% 95% likely range 26–69% | 17 of 17 | -1.3 | -0.08 | -4.4% | 51% |
Win-loss record (all graded picks) · 3
Showing all graded picks, including result-only picks recorded without a price. Picks without a price count toward W-L-P and Win %, but are excluded from market-adjusted points and CLV.
| Place | Source | Graded W-L-P | Win % | Priced picks | Points | Per pick | CLV | Avg fair win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basketball Sphere Web Panel · 7 writers | 20-19-0 | 51.3% 95% likely range 36–66% | 36 of 39 | +0.7 | +0.02 | -6.5% | 55% |
| 2 | Pickswise Web Panel · 8 writers | 12-11-1 | 52.2% 95% likely range 33–71% | 24 of 24 | +0.6 | +0.03 | -1.4% | 51% |
| 3 | Big Al Web Panel · 11 writers | 8-9-0 | 47.1% 95% likely range 26–69% | 17 of 17 | -1.3 | -0.08 | -4.4% | 51% |
Early sample · 8 to 14 graded picks (4 sources)
These sources have between 8 and 14 graded picks on this market. They are listed with their 95% likely ranges until they reach the 15-pick threshold for the main standings.
| Source | Graded W-L-P | Win % | Priced picks | Points | Per pick | CLV | Avg fair win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VseProSport Telegram | 7-6-0 | 53.8% 95% likely range 29–77% | 13 of 13 | +0.7 | +0.05 | -8.3% | 51% |
| Sports Chat Place Web Panel · 2 writers | 5-9-0 | 35.7% 95% likely range 16–61% | 14 of 14 | -3.9 | -0.28 | — | 50% |
| Betrush Web Panel · 4 writers | 4-5-0 | 44.4% 95% likely range 19–73% | 9 of 9 | — (9 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -1.3% | 51% |
| TheTargetBet Telegram | 2-6-0 | 25.0% 95% likely range 7–59% | 8 of 8 | — (8 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -5.6% | 53% |
Fewer than 8 graded picks (11 sources)
| Source | Graded W-L-P | Win % | Priced picks | Points | Per pick | CLV | Avg fair win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covers Web Panel · 6 writers | 4-3-0 | 57.1% 95% likely range 25–84% | 7 of 7 | — (7 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -3.0% | 50% |
| Exklusive Sportwetten Telegram | 2-3-0 | 40.0% 95% likely range 12–77% | 4 of 5 | — (4 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -3.2% | 58% |
| The JuiceBox YouTube Panel · 2 writers | 3-2-0 | 60.0% 95% likely range 23–88% | 5 of 5 | — (5 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -3.6% | 49% |
| Play Me or Fade Me YouTube | 1-2-0 | 33.3% 95% likely range 6–79% | 3 of 3 | — (3 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -5.2% | 51% |
| Sportsbook Review Web Panel · 2 writers | 2-1-0 | 66.7% 95% likely range 21–94% | 3 of 3 | — (3 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -4.8% | 51% |
| BettingPros Web | 1-1-0 | 50.0% 95% likely range 9–91% | 1 of 2 | — (1 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | +0.0% | 50% |
| BettingPros (YouTube) YouTube | 1-1-0 | 50.0% 95% likely range 9–91% | 1 of 2 | — (1 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -1.0% | 49% |
| BetBlog Web Panel · 2 writers | 0-1-0 | 0.0% 95% likely range 0–79% | 1 of 1 | — (1 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -6.5% | 50% |
| SportsJaw Web | 0-1-0 | 0.0% 95% likely range 0–79% | 1 of 1 | — (1 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -5.5% | 51% |
| The Action Network (YouTube) YouTube | 0-1-0 | 0.0% 95% likely range 0–79% | 1 of 1 | — (1 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | — | 50% |
| Wunderdog Web | 0-1-0 | 0.0% 95% likely range 0–79% | 1 of 1 | — (1 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -26.9% | 37% |
Over/under leaders by market-adjusted points
1 source with at least 15 graded over/under picks.
Market-adjusted points (priced picks only) · 1
| Place | Source | Graded W-L-P | Win % | Priced picks | Points | Per pick | CLV | Avg fair win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pickswise Web Panel · 8 writers | 8-10-0 | 44.4% 95% likely range 25–66% | 17 of 18 | -0.9 | -0.05 | -2.6% | 50% |
Win-loss record (all graded picks) · 1
Showing all graded picks, including result-only picks recorded without a price. Picks without a price count toward W-L-P and Win %, but are excluded from market-adjusted points and CLV.
| Place | Source | Graded W-L-P | Win % | Priced picks | Points | Per pick | CLV | Avg fair win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pickswise Web Panel · 8 writers | 8-10-0 | 44.4% 95% likely range 25–66% | 17 of 18 | -0.9 | -0.05 | -2.6% | 50% |
Early sample · 8 to 14 graded picks (3 sources)
These sources have between 8 and 14 graded picks on this market. They are listed with their 95% likely ranges until they reach the 15-pick threshold for the main standings.
| Source | Graded W-L-P | Win % | Priced picks | Points | Per pick | CLV | Avg fair win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Al Web Panel · 11 writers | 9-5-0 | 64.3% 95% likely range 39–84% | 14 of 14 | +3.7 | +0.26 | -2.6% | 51% |
| Basketball Sphere Web Panel · 7 writers | 6-6-0 | 50.0% 95% likely range 25–75% | 12 of 12 | -0.4 | -0.03 | -8.2% | 52% |
| The JuiceBox YouTube Panel · 2 writers | 5-8-0 | 38.5% 95% likely range 18–64% | 13 of 13 | -3.0 | -0.23 | -4.4% | 50% |
Fewer than 8 graded picks (4 sources)
| Source | Graded W-L-P | Win % | Priced picks | Points | Per pick | CLV | Avg fair win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VseProSport Telegram | 3-1-0 | 75.0% 95% likely range 30–95% | 4 of 4 | — (4 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -10.6% | 50% |
| Exklusive Sportwetten Telegram | 1-1-0 | 50.0% 95% likely range 9–91% | 2 of 2 | — (2 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -3.4% | 56% |
| Covers Web Panel · 6 writers | 0-1-0 | 0.0% 95% likely range 0–79% | 1 of 1 | — (1 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | — | 42% |
| TheTargetBet Telegram | 0-1-0 | 0.0% 95% likely range 0–79% | 1 of 1 | — (1 priced; min. 10 for points) | — | -2.6% | 54% |
Spread and over/under accuracy by week
How against the spread grading works
Each spread pick is graded at the line printed with that pick: we add the spread to the picked team's final score, including overtime. Ahead is a win, behind is a loss, level is a push. Two sources picking the same game at different times may be graded against different numbers if their published lines differed.
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