ESPN · NFL 2026
Mike Clay: the picks behind each badge, NFL 2026
Every pick behind each of the 6 current badges on the profile of Mike Clay, oldest first, losses included. The profile shows up to 10 picks per badge; this page has all of them, with the rule, the picks each badge can use and the outlet pages.
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. Badge rules · How badges work
Recording evidence: Recorded before kickoff (we saw the pick before the game), Timestamped before kickoff (the platform's time stamp or a web archive copy), Matches outlet record (read after the game; the outlet's published record matches our recount), Added after the game (can only lower a record).
- Right against the crowd · SU · 4 times · e.g. HOU at IND, 19 of 22 others wrong
- 5 outright upsets called · of 9 underdog picks · 2026
- Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8%
- 15 picks timestamped before kickoff · web archive copy
- Positive market-adjusted points in 4 of 5 weeks · SU · 2026
- Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78
Season badges
Right against the crowd · SU · 4 times · e.g. HOU at IND, 19 of 22 others wrong
Matches the outlet's published record
Right 4 times straight up when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. HOU at IND: 19 of 22 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 19 of 22 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 13.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right. Counted over the season. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10 times. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at KC Sept 14 · Week 1 | KC | Win DEN 10–31 KC | Matches outlet record |
| JAX at DEN Sept 20 · Week 2 | DEN | Win JAX 13–20 DEN | Matches outlet record |
| HOU at IND Sept 27 · Week 3 | IND | Win HOU 17–19 IND | Matches outlet record |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Matches outlet record |
Outlet pages: ESPN, Week 1 · ESPN, Week 2 · ESPN, Week 3 · ESPN, Week 5.
Outlet record check: ESPN season record on 2026-10-14 (SU): published 51-27, our recount 51-27-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Right against the crowd · SU · 4 times · e.g. HOU at IND, 19 of 22 others wrong · hunchmeter.com/experts/mike-clay/#t-zu-5b7aadce7fd7a6c1
5 outright upsets called · of 9 underdog picks · 2026
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Recorded before kickoffMatches the outlet's published record
Picked 5 underdogs to win outright that did, out of 9 straight-up underdog picks.
- Period
- 2026
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 15.9 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 36 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Straight-up picks on the underdog that won outright. The underdog is set by the market at the time of the pick: a decisive moneyline (+105 or longer), or else the team getting points. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10, always shown with the number of underdog picks. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at HOU Sept 13 · Week 1 | HOU | Loss BUF 36–31 HOU | Matches outlet record |
| NYJ at TEN Sept 13 · Week 1 | NYJ | Win NYJ 23–10 TEN | Matches outlet record |
| GB at MIN Sept 13 · Week 1 | GB | Loss GB 22–39 MIN | Matches outlet record |
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · IND · Win | |||
| MIN at TB Sept 27 · Week 3 | TB | Loss MIN 23–16 TB | Matches outlet record |
| DAL at HOU Oct 4 · Week 4 | DAL | Win DAL 34–30 HOU | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| JAX at CIN Oct 4 · Week 4 | JAX | Win JAX 22–17 CIN | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Matches outlet record |
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 5 h 45 min before |
Outlet pages: ESPN, Week 1 · ESPN, Week 3 · ESPN, Week 4 · ESPN, Week 5.
Outlet record check: ESPN season record on 2026-10-14 (SU): published 51-27, our recount 51-27-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: 5 outright upsets called · of 9 underdog picks · 2026 · hunchmeter.com/experts/mike-clay/#t-zu-0c9dc72c80db0e9d
Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8%
Recorded before kickoff
The correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance on record: BUF over LAR in Week 5, when the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- ≈8 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 32.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 63 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- One per forecaster, shown on the profile: the correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance (below 50%). Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 9–9 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8% · hunchmeter.com/experts/mike-clay/#t-zu-125a65b1aca0c7ee
15 picks timestamped before kickoff · web archive copy
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)
Graded picks with a time before kickoff set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. This says nothing about results.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- This is a fact about how the picks were recorded, not about results. Held now by 56 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- The number of graded picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. Steps: 10, 30, 100 and 300. It says nothing about results. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Only picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND at WSH Oct 4 · Week 4 | IND | Win IND 30–13 WSH | Archive copy, 1 d 13 h before · copy |
| ARI at NYG Oct 4 · Week 4 | ARI | Loss ARI 24–36 NYG | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| DAL at HOU · Week 4 · DAL · Win | |||
| GB at TB Oct 4 · Week 4 | GB | Win GB 17–14 TB | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| JAX at CIN · Week 4 · JAX · Win | |||
| LAR at PHI Oct 4 · Week 4 | LAR | Win LAR 24–20 PHI | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| NE at BUF Oct 4 · Week 4 | BUF | Loss NE 29–26 BUF | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| NYJ at CHI Oct 4 · Week 4 | CHI | Win NYJ 12–23 CHI | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| TEN at BAL Oct 4 · Week 4 | BAL | Win TEN 18–24 BAL | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| MIA at MIN Oct 4 · Week 4 | MIN | Win MIA 10–15 MIN | Archive copy, 1 d 20 h before · copy |
| DEN at SF Oct 4 · Week 4 | SF | Win DEN 14–24 SF | Archive copy, 1 d 20 h before · copy |
| KC at LV Oct 4 · Week 4 | KC | Win KC 30–27 LV | Archive copy, 1 d 20 h before · copy |
| LAC at SEA Oct 4 · Week 4 | SEA | Win LAC 23–30 SEA | Archive copy, 1 d 20 h before · copy |
| DET at CAR Oct 4 · Week 4 | DET | Loss DET 26–32 CAR | Archive copy, 2 d before · copy |
| ATL at NO Oct 5 · Week 4 | NO | Loss ATL 45–24 NO | Archive copy, 3 d before · copy |
Outlet pages: ESPN, Week 4.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: 15 picks timestamped before kickoff · web archive copy · hunchmeter.com/experts/mike-clay/#t-zu-3bf686c7d77e541a
Positive market-adjusted points in 4 of 5 weeks · SU · 2026
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Matches the outlet's published record
Straight up, market-adjusted points were above zero in 4 of the 5 NFL weeks with five or more scored picks.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate
- Weeks counted
- Week 1: +2.2 (16 picks) · Week 2: +0.8 (16 picks) · Week 3: −2.4 (8 picks) · Week 4: +2.9 (10 picks) · Week 5: 0.0 (8 picks)
- How rare
- ≈1 in 5 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 4.5 of 23 got it on average. Held now by 3 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- On one market, NFL weeks with five or more scored picks: at least 4 such weeks, and market-adjusted points above zero in at least 75% of them (3 of 4, 4 of 5, 5 of 6 and so on). Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
Built on the same picks as SU · +3.5 market-adjusted points · 58 picks · 2026 and SU 36–21–1 · +3 over picking favorites (33–24–1) · 2026, so it is shown once.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence | Implied win chance used for scoring | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA Sept 9 · Week 1 | SEA | Win NE 10–13 SEA | Matches outlet record | 64.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.56 |
| SF at LAR Sept 10 · Week 1 | LAR | Loss SF 27–7 LAR | Matches outlet record | 55.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| ATL at PIT Sept 13 · Week 1 | PIT | Win ATL 13–20 PIT | Matches outlet record | 55.4% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.81 |
| BAL at IND Sept 13 · Week 1 | BAL | Win BAL 41–23 IND | Matches outlet record | 63.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.56 |
| BUF at HOU · Week 1 · HOU · Loss | |||||
| CHI at CAR Sept 13 · Week 1 | CHI | Win CHI 59–37 CAR | Matches outlet record | 56.0% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.79 |
| CLE at JAX Sept 13 · Week 1 | JAX | Win CLE 10–34 JAX | Matches outlet record | 74.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.35 |
| NO at DET Sept 13 · Week 1 | DET | Win NO 30–31 DET | Matches outlet record | 75.5% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.32 |
| NYJ at TEN · Week 1 · NYJ · Win | |||||
| TB at CIN Sept 13 · Week 1 | CIN | Win TB 27–33 CIN | Matches outlet record | 63.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.58 |
| ARI at LAC Sept 13 · Week 1 | LAC | Loss ARI 26–14 LAC | Matches outlet record | 81.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| GB at MIN · Week 1 · GB · Loss | |||||
| MIA at LV Sept 13 · Week 1 | LV | Win MIA 13–27 LV | Matches outlet record | 60.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.64 |
| WSH at PHI Sept 13 · Week 1 | PHI | Win WSH 22–24 PHI | Matches outlet record | 65.8% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.52 |
| DAL at NYG Sept 13 · Week 1 | DAL | Loss DAL 20–28 NYG | Matches outlet record | 56.3% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · KC · Win | |||||
| DET at BUF Sept 17 · Week 2 | BUF | Win DET 31–41 BUF | Matches outlet record | 60.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.66 |
| CAR at ATL Sept 20 · Week 2 | CAR | Win CAR 34–3 ATL | Matches outlet record | 44.4% · underdog market opening price (archive), no margin | +1.25 |
| CIN at HOU Sept 20 · Week 2 | HOU | Loss CIN 20–6 HOU | Matches outlet record | 56.0% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| CLE at TB Sept 20 · Week 2 | TB | Loss CLE 23–19 TB | Matches outlet record | 71.7% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| GB at NYJ Sept 20 · Week 2 | GB | Win GB 20–17 NYJ | Matches outlet record | 69.8% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.43 |
| MIN at CHI Sept 20 · Week 2 | CHI | Loss MIN 9–3 CHI | Matches outlet record | 64.4% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| NO at BAL Sept 20 · Week 2 | BAL | Loss NO 24–17 BAL | Matches outlet record | 75.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| PHI at TEN Sept 20 · Week 2 | PHI | Win PHI 24–20 TEN | Matches outlet record | 65.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.52 |
| PIT at NE Sept 20 · Week 2 | NE | Win PIT 3–20 NE | Matches outlet record | 68.5% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.46 |
| JAX at DEN · Week 2 · DEN · Win | |||||
| LV at LAC Sept 20 · Week 2 | LAC | Loss LV 26–14 LAC | Matches outlet record | 78.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| MIA at SF Sept 20 · Week 2 | SF | Win MIA 13–35 SF | Matches outlet record | 81.3% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.23 |
| SEA at ARI Sept 20 · Week 2 | SEA | Win SEA 31–7 ARI | Matches outlet record | 77.6% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.29 |
| WSH at DAL Sept 20 · Week 2 | DAL | Win WSH 20–37 DAL | Matches outlet record | 63.8% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.57 |
| IND at KC Sept 20 · Week 2 | KC | Win IND 30–33 KC | Matches outlet record | 70.8% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.41 |
| NYG at LAR Sept 21 · Week 2 | LAR | Win NYG 6–28 LAR | Matches outlet record | 76.3% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.31 |
| ATL at GB Sept 24 · Week 3 | GB | Loss ATL 35–14 GB | Matches outlet record | 75.1% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| CAR at CLE Sept 27 · Week 3 | CAR | Loss CAR 18–21 CLE | Matches outlet record | 57.0% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | −1.00 |
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · IND · Win | |||||
| TEN at NYG Sept 27 · Week 3 | NYG | Win TEN 7–12 NYG | Matches outlet record | 55.6% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | +0.80 |
| MIN at TB · Week 3 · TB · Loss | |||||
| BAL at DAL Sept 27 · Week 3 | BAL | Win BAL 34–31 DAL | Matches outlet record | 61.5% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | +0.63 |
| LV at NO Sept 27 · Week 3 | NO | Loss LV 35–27 NO | Matches outlet record | 61.6% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | −1.00 |
| LAR at DEN Sept 27 · Week 3 | LAR | Loss LAR 26–30 DEN | Matches outlet record | 55.6% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | −1.00 |
| PIT at CLE Oct 1 · Week 4 | PIT | Loss PIT 24–27 CLE | Matches outlet record | 57.2% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | −1.00 |
| IND at WSH · Week 4 · IND · Win | |||||
| ARI at NYG · Week 4 · ARI · Loss | |||||
| DAL at HOU · Week 4 · DAL · Win | |||||
| JAX at CIN · Week 4 · JAX · Win | |||||
| LAR at PHI · Week 4 · LAR · Win | |||||
| NYJ at CHI · Week 4 · CHI · Win | |||||
| DEN at SF · Week 4 · SF · Win | |||||
| KC at LV · Week 4 · KC · Win | |||||
| ATL at NO · Week 4 · NO · Loss | |||||
| CLE at NYJ · Week 5 · NYJ · Win | |||||
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | PIT | Win IND 22–34 PIT | Matches outlet record | 56.4% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | +0.77 |
| MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5 | MIN | Win MIN 23–13 NO | Matches outlet record | 55.5% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | +0.80 |
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | WSH | Push NYG 27–27 WSH | Matches outlet record | 63.0% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | 0.00 |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | CHI | Loss CHI 7–31 GB | Matches outlet record | 54.5% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | −1.00 |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | DEN | Win DEN 23–17 LAC | Matches outlet record | 61.8% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | +0.62 |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SEA | Loss SF 32–29 SEA | Matches outlet record | 60.0% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | −1.00 |
| BAL at ATL · Week 5 · ATL · Loss | |||||
Outlet pages: ESPN, Week 1 · ESPN, Week 2 · ESPN, Week 3 · ESPN, Week 4 · ESPN, Week 5.
Outlet record check: ESPN season record on 2026-10-14 (SU): published 51-27, our recount 51-27-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Positive market-adjusted points in 4 of 5 weeks · SU · 2026 · hunchmeter.com/experts/mike-clay/#t-zu-c936b38a6524e745
Weekly badges
Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78
Recorded before kickoff
Picked BUF to beat LAR straight up in Week 5; the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance. 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 5, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 5, Oct 13, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 9–9 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 · hunchmeter.com/experts/mike-clay/#t-zu-3f82ce3ae9e2c368
Held at the time of earlier picks
Badges Mike Clay held when making picks shown on game pages, as they stood at that moment, with the picks behind each. Badges are recounted after every game, so these may differ from the current ones.
SU 36–21–1 · +3 over picking favorites (33–24–1) · 2026
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Cardinals at Rams · Ravens at Falcons · Ravens at Browns · Bills at Rams · Bills at Raiders · Panthers at Eagles · Bears at Falcons · Bears at Packers · Bengals at Dolphins · Browns at Jets · Cowboys at Packers · Broncos at Chargers · Lions at Cardinals · Texans at Jaguars · Texans at Titans · Colts at Steelers · Chargers at Chiefs · Raiders at Patriots · Vikings at Saints · Saints at Giants · Giants at Commanders · Jets at Patriots · Eagles at Jaguars · Steelers at Buccaneers · Seahawks at Broncos · 49ers at Seahawks · Buccaneers at Cowboys · Titans at Colts · Commanders at 49ers. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Oct 14, 11:12 a.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Oct 13, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
58 picks behind it as of Oct 14, 11:12 a.m. ET: the same picks as rows 1–58 of the table under the badge above.
SU · +3.0 market-adjusted points · 32 picks · 2026
Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Cardinals at 49ers · Falcons at Packers · Ravens at Cowboys · Panthers at Falcons · Panthers at Browns · Bengals at Texans · Bengals at Steelers · Browns at Buccaneers · Lions at Bills · Packers at Jets · Texans at Colts · Colts at Chiefs · Jaguars at Broncos · Chiefs at Dolphins · Chargers at Bills · Rams at Broncos · Raiders at Chargers · Raiders at Saints · Dolphins at 49ers · Vikings at Bears · Vikings at Buccaneers · Patriots at Jaguars · Saints at Ravens · Giants at Rams · Jets at Lions · Eagles at Bears · Eagles at Titans · Steelers at Patriots · Seahawks at Cardinals · Seahawks at Commanders · Titans at Giants · Commanders at Cowboys. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Sept 24, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Sept 22, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
32 picks behind it as of Sept 24, 8:15 p.m. ET: the same picks as rows 1–32 of the table under the badge above.