Deadspin · NFL 2026 · week 9
Justin Bales's 2026 NFL picks and record
Justin Bales of Deadspin is 1-0-0 (1 of 1 decided picks) on NFL winner picks and 0-1-0 (0 of 1 decided picks) over/under in the 2026 season through Week 9. No Week 10 picks are recorded yet. Updated .
1–0–0
Straight up · 1 win · 0 losses · 0 ties · 1 of 1 decided picks · no win % until 10 decided picks
Over/under 0–1–0 · 0 of 1 decided picks
Winner picks only · Against the spread records
Market-adjusted points, straight up: +0.6 points 1 pick scored · 1 of 1 had a market price
How to read the points: zero is what the betting odds expected from these picks; above zero is better than the odds, below zero is worse.
Week 10 picks
No Week 10 picks recorded yet.
Last completed week · Week 9
1–0 winner picks
See Justin's 2 Week 9 games
See 106 experts' Week 10 picks so far
Next game: Patriots at Lions (Sun 9:30 a.m. ET) — 68 of 76 experts pick the Lions →
Every pick
All experts: Week 10 picks · Week 11 early picks
Week 9 · SU 1-0-0; O/U 0-1-0
| Game | Straight up | Over/under | Final | How we got it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at CHI Sun, Nov 8 | — | Under 47.5 Loss | TB 24, CHI 27 | Recorded before kickoff |
| BUF at MIN Mon, Nov 9 |  BUF Win | — | BUF 23, MIN 6 | Recorded before kickoff |
By week
| Week | Straight up | Over/under |
|---|---|---|
| Week 9 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
| Season | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
By team
| Team | Winner picks | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 1–0 | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | — | 1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1–0 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | 1 |
Record when picking each team
| Team | Picked to win | Picked to lose |
|---|---|---|
| BUF Buffalo Bills | 1-0-0 | — |
 MIN Minnesota Vikings | — | 1-0-0 |
How the graded picks were recorded · 2 picks (1 straight up, 1 on over/under)
Record so far
- Current streak, straight up
- 1 win in a row Longest: 1 win
Market-adjusted points Pick results adjusted for market odds.
- Straight up, live record since Week 6: +0.6 points 1 pick scored · 1 of 1 had a market price.
A right pick on a 50-50 game earns 1 point, a right underdog pick earns more, and a wrong pick costs 1. Above zero means better than the betting odds expected. Compare all pick types · How these points are calculated
Market-adjusted results
Three numbers for each market: the record, market-adjusted points and how picking every favorite would have done. Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at the market price at the time of the pick (for picks read after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week), with the bookmaker margin taken out: a win adds what that price paid (more for an underdog, less for a favorite), a loss takes away 1 point, a push counts 0. How points work
| Market and period | Record in these picks | Market-adjusted points | Compared with |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straight up 2026 season | 1-0 | +0.6 points 1 pick scored · 1 of 1 had a market price | Every favorite: 1-0 same 1 game |
| Straight up Live record since Week 6 | 1-0 | +0.6 points 1 pick scored · 1 of 1 had a market price | Every favorite: 1-0 same 1 game |
| Over/under 2026 season | 0-1 | −1.0 points 1 pick scored · all priced by the market | Coin flip: 50% 0.5 of 1 decided |
| Over/under Live record since Week 6 | 0-1 | −1.0 points 1 pick scored · all priced by the market | Coin flip: 50% 0.5 of 1 decided |
- Justin Bales +0.6 vs +0.6 favorites
Teal: the expert's market-adjusted points. Gray: picking every favorite in the same games, scored the same way.
Does this match Deadspin?
This record is our count of the picks published on Deadspin's pages, graded against the final scores.
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