CBS Sports · NFL 2026
Dave Richard: the picks behind each badge, NFL 2026
Every pick behind each of the 11 current badges on the profile of Dave Richard, oldest first, losses included. The profile shows up to 10 picks per badge; this page has all of them, with the rule, the picks each badge can use and the outlet pages.
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. Badge rules · How badges work
Recording evidence: Recorded before kickoff (we saw the pick before the game), Timestamped before kickoff (the platform's time stamp or a web archive copy), Matches outlet record (read after the game; the outlet's published record matches our recount), Added after the game (can only lower a record).
- Right against the crowd · SU · 7 times · e.g. MIN at CHI, 22 of 22 others wrong
- Best call: LV over LAC · Week 2 · market 27.4%
- Upset Specialist · 10 of 21 underdogs won outright · prices implied 8.5
- Right against the crowd · ATS · 13 times · e.g. NE at SEA, 15 of 18 others wrong
- Division games · SU 14–7–1 · 2026 · field 48.9%
- Positive market-adjusted points in 4 of 5 weeks · SU · 2026
- SU · +6.7 market-adjusted points · 43 picks · Weeks 2–5, 2026
- Raiders games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 59.0%
- Biggest upset called · Week 3 · ATL over GB · market 32.1% · called by 1 of 23
- Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23
- Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23
Season badges
Right against the crowd · SU · 7 times · e.g. MIN at CHI, 22 of 22 others wrong
Matches the outlet's published record
Right 7 times straight up when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. MIN at CHI: 22 of 22 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 22 of 22 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 13.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right. Counted over the season. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10 times. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAR Sept 10 · Week 1 | SF (+169) | Win SF 27–7 LAR | Matches outlet record |
| MIN at CHI Sept 20 · Week 2 | MIN (+177) | Win MIN 9–3 CHI | Matches outlet record |
| LV at LAC Sept 20 · Week 2 | LV (+245) | Win LV 26–14 LAC | Matches outlet record |
| ATL at GB Sept 24 · Week 3 | ATL (+206) | Win ATL 35–14 GB | Matches outlet record |
| HOU at IND Sept 27 · Week 3 | IND (+107) | Win HOU 17–19 IND | Matches outlet record |
| LV at NO Sept 27 · Week 3 | LV (+150) | Win LV 35–27 NO | Matches outlet record |
| PIT at CLE Oct 1 · Week 4 | CLE (+124) | Win PIT 24–27 CLE | Matches outlet record |
Outlet pages: CBS Sports, Week 1 · CBS Sports, Week 2 · CBS Sports, Week 3 · CBS Sports, Week 4.
Outlet record check: CBS Sports Week 1 SU: published 9-7-0, our recount 9-7-0; CBS Sports Week 2 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 3 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 4 SU: published 10-6-0, our recount 10-6-0.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Right against the crowd · SU · 7 times · e.g. MIN at CHI, 22 of 22 others wrong · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-df117bee4791cd0b
Best call: LV over LAC · Week 2 · market 27.4%
Matches the outlet's published record
The correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance on record: LV over LAC in Week 2, when the market gave LV a 27.4% chance.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- ≈8 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 32.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 63 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- One per forecaster, shown on the profile: the correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance (below 50%). Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 3–3 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Best call: LV over LAC · Week 2 · market 27.4% · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-87e52676b832d60b
Upset Specialist · 10 of 21 underdogs won outright · prices implied 8.5
Matches the outlet's published record
10 of 21 straight-up underdog picks right; market prices implied 8.5.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- market prices implied 8.5 wins
- How rare
- Our chance check had 4 qualifying forecasters, too few to say how often luck alone gives this. Held now by 4 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- At least 5 straight-up underdog picks, at least 3 of them won, and at least 1.0 more wins than the market prices implied. The word Specialist is used only together with these numbers. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record. Levels use the live record only.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
Built on the same picks as 10 outright upsets called · of 21 underdog picks · 2026, so it is shown once.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA Sept 9 · Week 1 | NE (+148) | Loss NE 10–13 SEA | Matches outlet record |
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF · Win | |||
| BAL at IND Sept 13 · Week 1 | IND (+149) | Loss BAL 41–23 IND | Matches outlet record |
| BUF at HOU Sept 13 · Week 1 | HOU (-101) | Loss BUF 36–31 HOU | Matches outlet record |
| CHI at CAR Sept 13 · Week 1 | CAR (+144) | Loss CHI 59–37 CAR | Matches outlet record |
| NYJ at TEN Sept 13 · Week 1 | NYJ (+103) | Win NYJ 23–10 TEN | Matches outlet record |
| DEN at KC Sept 14 · Week 1 | DEN (+124) | Loss DEN 10–31 KC | Matches outlet record |
| CIN at HOU Sept 20 · Week 2 | CIN (+126) | Win CIN 20–6 HOU | Matches outlet record |
| GB at NYJ Sept 20 · Week 2 | NYJ (+158) | Loss GB 20–17 NYJ | Matches outlet record |
| MIN at CHI · Week 2 · MIN · Win | |||
| JAX at DEN Sept 20 · Week 2 | JAX (+125) | Loss JAX 13–20 DEN | Matches outlet record |
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV · Win | |||
| NYG at LAR Sept 21 · Week 2 | NYG (+278) | Loss NYG 6–28 LAR | Matches outlet record |
| ATL at GB · Week 3 · ATL · Win | |||
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · IND · Win | |||
| LV at NO · Week 3 · LV · Win | |||
| PIT at CLE · Week 4 · CLE · Win | |||
| JAX at CIN Oct 4 · Week 4 | JAX (+118) | Win JAX 22–17 CIN | Matches outlet record |
| DEN at SF Oct 4 · Week 4 | DEN (+125) | Loss DEN 14–24 SF | Matches outlet record |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | CLE (+109) | Loss CLE 12–17 NYJ | Matches outlet record |
| MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5 | NO (+116) | Loss MIN 23–13 NO | Matches outlet record |
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYG (+160) | Push NYG 27–27 WSH | Matches outlet record |
Outlet pages: CBS Sports, Week 1 · CBS Sports, Week 2 · CBS Sports, Week 3 · CBS Sports, Week 4 · CBS Sports, Week 5.
Outlet record check: CBS Sports Week 1 SU: published 9-7-0, our recount 9-7-0; CBS Sports Week 2 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 3 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 4 SU: published 10-6-0, our recount 10-6-0; CBS Sports Week 5 SU: published 7-7-1, our recount 7-7-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Upset Specialist · 10 of 21 underdogs won outright · prices implied 8.5 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-2cad9cd0e9d16157
Right against the crowd · ATS · 13 times · e.g. NE at SEA, 15 of 18 others wrong
Matches the outlet's published record
Right 13 times against the spread when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. NE at SEA: 15 of 18 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 15 of 18 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈6 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 9.2 of 16 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right. Counted over the season. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10 times. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA Sept 9 · Week 1 | NE +3.5 | Win NE 10–13 SEA | Matches outlet record |
| SF at LAR Sept 10 · Week 1 | SF +3.5 | Win SF 27–7 LAR | Matches outlet record |
| NO at DET Sept 13 · Week 1 | NO +7 | Win NO 30–31 DET | Matches outlet record |
| ARI at LAC Sept 13 · Week 1 | ARI +10.5 | Win ARI 26–14 LAC | Matches outlet record |
| GB at MIN Sept 13 · Week 1 | MIN -1.5 | Win GB 22–39 MIN | Matches outlet record |
| WSH at PHI Sept 13 · Week 1 | WSH +4.5 | Win WSH 22–24 PHI | Matches outlet record |
| MIN at CHI Sept 20 · Week 2 | MIN +5.5 | Win MIN 9–3 CHI | Matches outlet record |
| LV at LAC Sept 20 · Week 2 | LV +7 | Win LV 26–14 LAC | Matches outlet record |
| IND at KC Sept 20 · Week 2 | IND +6.5 | Win IND 30–33 KC | Matches outlet record |
| ATL at GB Sept 24 · Week 3 | ATL +6.5 | Win ATL 35–14 GB | Matches outlet record |
| HOU at IND Sept 27 · Week 3 | IND +2.5 | Win HOU 17–19 IND | Matches outlet record |
| TEN at BAL Oct 4 · Week 4 | TEN +11.5 | Win TEN 18–24 BAL | Matches outlet record |
| LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5 | NE -3.5 | Win LV 17–45 NE | Matches outlet record |
Outlet pages: CBS Sports, Week 1 · CBS Sports, Week 2 · CBS Sports, Week 3 · CBS Sports, Week 4 · CBS Sports, Week 5.
Outlet record check: CBS Sports Week 1 ATS: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 2 ATS: published 9-7-0, our recount 9-7-0; CBS Sports Week 3 ATS: published 8-7-1, our recount 8-7-1; CBS Sports Week 4 ATS: published 4-11-1, our recount 4-11-1; CBS Sports Week 5 ATS: published 6-9-0, our recount 6-9-0.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Right against the crowd · ATS · 13 times · e.g. NE at SEA, 15 of 18 others wrong · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-284482275c77361b
Division games · SU 14–7–1 · 2026 · field 48.9%
Matches the outlet's published record
14–7–1 straight up in division games (66.7%), 2026; the field average in this category is 48.9%.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- field average 48.9%
- How rare
- ≈1 in 12 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 1.9 of 23 got it on average. Held now by 4 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Picks in games between two teams of the same division, on one market: at least 8 decided, with a share at least 10 points above the field in the same category and more wins than losses. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record. Levels use the live record only.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF · Win | |||
| GB at MIN Sept 13 · Week 1 | MIN (-121) | Win GB 22–39 MIN | Matches outlet record |
| WSH at PHI Sept 13 · Week 1 | PHI (-231) | Win WSH 22–24 PHI | Matches outlet record |
| DAL at NYG Sept 13 · Week 1 | DAL (-159) | Loss DAL 20–28 NYG | Matches outlet record |
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · DEN · Loss | |||
| CAR at ATL Sept 20 · Week 2 | CAR (-143) | Win CAR 34–3 ATL | Matches outlet record |
| MIN at CHI · Week 2 · MIN · Win | |||
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV · Win | |||
| SEA at ARI Sept 20 · Week 2 | SEA (-207) | Win SEA 31–7 ARI | Matches outlet record |
| WSH at DAL Sept 20 · Week 2 | DAL (-207) | Win WSH 20–37 DAL | Matches outlet record |
| CIN at PIT Sept 27 · Week 3 | CIN (-188) | Loss CIN 27–30 PIT | Matches outlet record |
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · IND · Win | |||
| ARI at SF Sept 27 · Week 3 | SF (-446) | Win ARI 30–36 SF | Matches outlet record |
| PIT at CLE · Week 4 · CLE · Win | |||
| NE at BUF Oct 4 · Week 4 | BUF (-322) | Loss NE 29–26 BUF | Matches outlet record |
| KC at LV Oct 4 · Week 4 | KC (-218) | Win KC 30–27 LV | Matches outlet record |
| ATL at NO Oct 5 · Week 4 | NO (-146) | Loss ATL 45–24 NO | Matches outlet record |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | CHI (-131) | Loss CHI 7–31 GB | Matches outlet record |
| HOU at TEN Oct 11 · Week 5 | HOU (-394) | Win HOU 26–3 TEN | Matches outlet record |
| NYG at WSH · Week 5 · NYG · Push | |||
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | DEN (-181) | Win DEN 23–17 LAC | Matches outlet record |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SEA (-167) | Loss SF 32–29 SEA | Matches outlet record |
Outlet pages: CBS Sports, Week 1 · CBS Sports, Week 2 · CBS Sports, Week 3 · CBS Sports, Week 4 · CBS Sports, Week 5.
Outlet record check: CBS Sports Week 1 SU: published 9-7-0, our recount 9-7-0; CBS Sports Week 2 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 3 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 4 SU: published 10-6-0, our recount 10-6-0; CBS Sports Week 5 SU: published 7-7-1, our recount 7-7-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Division games · SU 14–7–1 · 2026 · field 48.9% · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-ca880a7b864cd8a3
Positive market-adjusted points in 4 of 5 weeks · SU · 2026
Matches the outlet's published record
Straight up, market-adjusted points were above zero in 4 of the 5 NFL weeks with five or more scored picks.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate
- Weeks counted
- Week 1: 0.0 (16 picks) · Week 2: +5.0 (16 picks) · Week 3: +5.3 (8 picks) · Week 4: +1.0 (10 picks) · Week 5: −4.6 (9 picks)
- How rare
- ≈1 in 5 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 4.5 of 23 got it on average. Held now by 3 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- On one market, NFL weeks with five or more scored picks: at least 4 such weeks, and market-adjusted points above zero in at least 75% of them (3 of 4, 4 of 5, 5 of 6 and so on). Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
Built on the same picks as SU · +6.7 market-adjusted points · 59 picks · 2026, so it is shown once.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence | Implied win chance used for scoring | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA · Week 1 · NE · Loss | |||||
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF · Win | |||||
| ATL at PIT Sept 13 · Week 1 | PIT (-183) | Win ATL 13–20 PIT | Matches outlet record | 55.4% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.81 |
| BAL at IND · Week 1 · IND · Loss | |||||
| BUF at HOU · Week 1 · HOU · Loss | |||||
| CHI at CAR · Week 1 · CAR · Loss | |||||
| CLE at JAX Sept 13 · Week 1 | JAX (-442) | Win CLE 10–34 JAX | Matches outlet record | 74.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.35 |
| NO at DET Sept 13 · Week 1 | DET (-322) | Win NO 30–31 DET | Matches outlet record | 75.5% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.32 |
| NYJ at TEN · Week 1 · NYJ · Win | |||||
| TB at CIN Sept 13 · Week 1 | CIN (-206) | Win TB 27–33 CIN | Matches outlet record | 63.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.58 |
| ARI at LAC Sept 13 · Week 1 | LAC (-505) | Loss ARI 26–14 LAC | Matches outlet record | 81.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| GB at MIN · Week 1 · MIN · Win | |||||
| MIA at LV Sept 13 · Week 1 | LV (-183) | Win MIA 13–27 LV | Matches outlet record | 60.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.64 |
| WSH at PHI · Week 1 · PHI · Win | |||||
| DAL at NYG · Week 1 · DAL · Loss | |||||
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · DEN · Loss | |||||
| DET at BUF Sept 17 · Week 2 | BUF (-244) | Win DET 31–41 BUF | Matches outlet record | 60.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.66 |
| CAR at ATL · Week 2 · CAR · Win | |||||
| CIN at HOU · Week 2 · CIN · Win | |||||
| CLE at TB Sept 20 · Week 2 | TB (-442) | Loss CLE 23–19 TB | Matches outlet record | 71.7% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| GB at NYJ · Week 2 · NYJ · Loss | |||||
| MIN at CHI · Week 2 · MIN · Win | |||||
| NO at BAL Sept 20 · Week 2 | BAL (-400) | Loss NO 24–17 BAL | Matches outlet record | 75.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| PHI at TEN Sept 20 · Week 2 | PHI (-331) | Win PHI 24–20 TEN | Matches outlet record | 65.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.52 |
| PIT at NE Sept 20 · Week 2 | NE (-232) | Win PIT 3–20 NE | Matches outlet record | 68.5% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.46 |
| JAX at DEN · Week 2 · JAX · Loss | |||||
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV · Win | |||||
| MIA at SF Sept 20 · Week 2 | SF (-935) | Win MIA 13–35 SF | Matches outlet record | 81.3% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.23 |
| SEA at ARI · Week 2 · SEA · Win | |||||
| WSH at DAL · Week 2 · DAL · Win | |||||
| IND at KC Sept 20 · Week 2 | KC (-305) | Win IND 30–33 KC | Matches outlet record | 70.8% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.41 |
| NYG at LAR · Week 2 · NYG · Loss | |||||
| ATL at GB · Week 3 · ATL · Win | |||||
| CAR at CLE Sept 27 · Week 3 | CAR (-146) | Loss CAR 18–21 CLE | Matches outlet record | 57.0% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | −1.00 |
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · IND · Win | |||||
| TEN at NYG Sept 27 · Week 3 | NYG (-137) | Win TEN 7–12 NYG | Matches outlet record | 55.6% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | +0.80 |
| MIN at TB Sept 27 · Week 3 | MIN (-124) | Win MIN 23–16 TB | Matches outlet record | 53.2% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | +0.88 |
| BAL at DAL Sept 27 · Week 3 | BAL (-178) | Win BAL 34–31 DAL | Matches outlet record | 61.5% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | +0.63 |
| LV at NO · Week 3 · LV · Win | |||||
| LAR at DEN Sept 27 · Week 3 | LAR (-138) | Loss LAR 26–30 DEN | Matches outlet record | 55.6% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | −1.00 |
| PIT at CLE · Week 4 · CLE · Win | |||||
| IND at WSH Oct 4 · Week 4 | IND (-195) | Win IND 30–13 WSH | Matches outlet record | 63.5% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | +0.58 |
| ARI at NYG Oct 4 · Week 4 | ARI (-134) | Loss ARI 24–36 NYG | Matches outlet record | 54.9% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | −1.00 |
| DAL at HOU Oct 4 · Week 4 | HOU (-159) | Loss DAL 34–30 HOU | Matches outlet record | 59.0% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | −1.00 |
| JAX at CIN · Week 4 · JAX · Win | |||||
| LAR at PHI Oct 4 · Week 4 | LAR (-166) | Win LAR 24–20 PHI | Matches outlet record | 59.8% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | +0.67 |
| NYJ at CHI Oct 4 · Week 4 | CHI (-176) | Win NYJ 12–23 CHI | Matches outlet record | 61.2% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | +0.63 |
| DEN at SF · Week 4 · DEN · Loss | |||||
| KC at LV · Week 4 · KC · Win | |||||
| ATL at NO · Week 4 · NO · Loss | |||||
| CHI at GB · Week 5 · CHI · Loss | |||||
| CLE at NYJ · Week 5 · CLE · Loss | |||||
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | PIT (-143) | Win IND 22–34 PIT | Matches outlet record | 56.4% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | +0.77 |
| MIN at NO · Week 5 · NO · Loss | |||||
| NYG at WSH · Week 5 · NYG · Push | |||||
| DEN at LAC · Week 5 · DEN · Win | |||||
| SF at SEA · Week 5 · SEA · Loss | |||||
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL (-173) | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Matches outlet record | 60.8% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | −1.00 |
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | LAR (-172) | Loss BUF 37–34 LAR | Matches outlet record | 60.7% · favorite outlet's page prices, both sides | −1.00 |
Outlet pages: CBS Sports, Week 1 · CBS Sports, Week 2 · CBS Sports, Week 3 · CBS Sports, Week 4 · CBS Sports, Week 5.
Outlet record check: CBS Sports Week 1 SU: published 9-7-0, our recount 9-7-0; CBS Sports Week 2 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 3 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 4 SU: published 10-6-0, our recount 10-6-0; CBS Sports Week 5 SU: published 7-7-1, our recount 7-7-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Positive market-adjusted points in 4 of 5 weeks · SU · 2026 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-8490d982e0eea96e
SU · +6.7 market-adjusted points · 43 picks · Weeks 2–5, 2026
Matches the outlet's published record
+6.7 market-adjusted points over 43 straight-up picks in NFL Weeks 2–5, 2026.
- Period
- Weeks 2–5, 2026
- Compared with
- zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 8.2 of 23 got it on average. Held now by 4 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Market-adjusted points over the last four NFL weeks with graded picks: at least 15 scored picks (10 on totals) and at least +2.0 points, for forecasters whose record on that market starts before the window. Levels (No.1 to Top 10) in the same window use the live record only, with at least 30 scored picks (20 on totals). Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record. Levels use the live record only.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
43 picks behind this badge: the same picks as rows 17–59 of the table under the badge above (25 wins, 17 losses and 1 push).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: SU · +6.7 market-adjusted points · 43 picks · Weeks 2–5, 2026 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-ea0ccaa1b8a49d0c
Raiders games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 59.0%
Matches the outlet's published record
5–0 straight up in Las Vegas Raiders games (5 of 5 decided), 2026; the field average in this category is 59.0%.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- field average 59.0%
- How rare
- ≈1 in 5 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 4.2 of 23 got it on average. Held now by 6 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Picks in one team's games on one market: at least 5 decided, the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval above the base rate (50% against the spread and on totals; the average market chance of the picks straight up), and a share above the field in that team's games. A record only, with no ranking. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at LV · Week 1 · LV · Win | |||
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV · Win | |||
| LV at NO · Week 3 · LV · Win | |||
| KC at LV · Week 4 · KC · Win | |||
| LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5 | NE (-198) | Win LV 17–45 NE | Matches outlet record |
Outlet pages: CBS Sports, Week 1 · CBS Sports, Week 2 · CBS Sports, Week 3 · CBS Sports, Week 4 · CBS Sports, Week 5.
Outlet record check: CBS Sports Week 1 SU: published 9-7-0, our recount 9-7-0; CBS Sports Week 2 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 3 SU: published 11-5-0, our recount 11-5-0; CBS Sports Week 4 SU: published 10-6-0, our recount 10-6-0; CBS Sports Week 5 SU: published 7-7-1, our recount 7-7-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Raiders games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 59.0% · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-46d3ccc55045a857
Weekly badges
Biggest upset called · Week 3 · ATL over GB · market 32.1% · called by 1 of 23
Matches the outlet's published record
Picked ATL to beat GB straight up in Week 3; the market gave ATL a 32.1% chance. 1 of 23 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 3, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 3, Sept 29, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 1 of 23 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 4–4 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 3 · ATL over GB · market 32.1% · called by 1 of 23 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-914941997cd175fe
Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23
Matches the outlet's published record
Picked LV to beat LAC straight up in Week 2; the market gave LV a 27.4% chance. 3 of 23 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 2, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 2, Sept 22, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 3 of 23 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 3–3 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-bd7c211162c83717
Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23
Matches the outlet's published record
Picked SF to beat LAR straight up in Week 1; the market gave SF a 36.1% chance. 8 of 23 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 1, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 1, Sept 15, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 8 of 23 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 1–1 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-richard/#t-zu-35e068cf5ecde1c4
Held at the time of earlier picks
Badges Dave Richard held when making picks shown on game pages, as they stood at that moment, with the picks behind each. Badges are recounted after every game, so these may differ from the current ones.
Division games · ATS 9–8 · 2026 · field 41.2%
Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Cardinals at 49ers · Falcons at Saints · Bears at Packers · Bengals at Steelers · Broncos at Chargers · Texans at Colts · Texans at Titans · Chiefs at Raiders · Patriots at Bills · Giants at Commanders · Steelers at Browns · 49ers at Seahawks. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Oct 6, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF +3.5 · Win | |||
| GB at MIN · Week 1 · MIN -1.5 · Win | |||
| WSH at PHI · Week 1 · WSH +4.5 · Win | |||
| DAL at NYG Sept 13 · Week 1 | DAL -2.5 | Loss DAL 20–28 NYG | Matches outlet record |
| DEN at KC Sept 14 · Week 1 | DEN +2.5 | Loss DEN 10–31 KC | Matches outlet record |
| CAR at ATL Sept 20 · Week 2 | CAR -2.5 | Win CAR 34–3 ATL | Matches outlet record |
| MIN at CHI · Week 2 · MIN +5.5 · Win | |||
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV +7 · Win | |||
| SEA at ARI Sept 20 · Week 2 | SEA -4.5 | Win SEA 31–7 ARI | Matches outlet record |
| WSH at DAL Sept 20 · Week 2 | WSH +3.5 | Loss WSH 20–37 DAL | Matches outlet record |
| CIN at PIT Sept 27 · Week 3 | CIN -3.5 | Loss CIN 27–30 PIT | Matches outlet record |
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · IND +2.5 · Win | |||
| ARI at SF Sept 27 · Week 3 | SF -8.5 | Loss ARI 30–36 SF | Matches outlet record |
| PIT at CLE Oct 1 · Week 4 | CLE +2.5 | Win PIT 24–27 CLE | Matches outlet record |
| NE at BUF Oct 4 · Week 4 | BUF -6.5 | Loss NE 29–26 BUF | Matches outlet record |
| KC at LV Oct 4 · Week 4 | KC -4.5 | Loss KC 30–27 LV | Matches outlet record |
| ATL at NO Oct 5 · Week 4 | NO -2.5 | Loss ATL 45–24 NO | Matches outlet record |
Prime-time games · ATS 4–3 · 2026 · field 36.9%
Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Falcons at Packers · Rams at Broncos · Eagles at Bears. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Sept 24, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Sept 22, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA · Week 1 · NE +3.5 · Win | |||
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF +3.5 · Win | |||
| DAL at NYG · Week 1 · DAL -2.5 · Loss | |||
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · DEN +2.5 · Loss | |||
| DET at BUF Sept 17 · Week 2 | BUF -4.5 | Win DET 31–41 BUF | Matches outlet record |
| IND at KC · Week 2 · IND +6.5 · Win | |||
| NYG at LAR Sept 21 · Week 2 | NYG +7 | Loss NYG 6–28 LAR | Matches outlet record |
ATS · +9.0 market-adjusted points · 48 picks · 2026
Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Cardinals at Giants · Cardinals at 49ers · Falcons at Packers · Falcons at Saints · Ravens at Cowboys · Panthers at Falcons · Panthers at Browns · Bengals at Texans · Bengals at Steelers · Browns at Buccaneers · Cowboys at Texans · Broncos at 49ers · Lions at Bills · Lions at Panthers · Packers at Jets · Packers at Buccaneers · Texans at Colts · Colts at Chiefs · Colts at Commanders · Jaguars at Bengals · Jaguars at Broncos · Chiefs at Raiders · Chiefs at Dolphins · Chargers at Bills · Chargers at Seahawks · Rams at Broncos · Rams at Eagles · Raiders at Chargers · Raiders at Saints · Dolphins at Vikings · Dolphins at 49ers · Vikings at Bears · Vikings at Buccaneers · Patriots at Bills · Patriots at Jaguars · Saints at Ravens · Giants at Rams · Jets at Bears · Jets at Lions · Eagles at Bears · Eagles at Titans · Steelers at Browns · Steelers at Patriots · Seahawks at Cardinals · Seahawks at Commanders · Titans at Ravens · Titans at Giants · Commanders at Cowboys. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Sept 29, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence | Implied win chance used for scoring | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA · Week 1 · NE +3.5 · Win | |||||
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF +3.5 · Win | |||||
| ATL at PIT Sept 13 · Week 1 | PIT -3 | Win ATL 13–20 PIT | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| BAL at IND Sept 13 · Week 1 | IND +3.5 | Loss BAL 41–23 IND | Matches outlet record | 49.9% market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| BUF at HOU Sept 13 · Week 1 | HOU +1.5 | Loss BUF 36–31 HOU | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
| CHI at CAR Sept 13 · Week 1 | CAR +2.5 | Loss CHI 59–37 CAR | Matches outlet record | 49.2% market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| CLE at JAX Sept 13 · Week 1 | JAX -7.5 | Win CLE 10–34 JAX | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| NO at DET · Week 1 · NO +7 · Win | |||||
| NYJ at TEN Sept 13 · Week 1 | NYJ +1.5 | Win NYJ 23–10 TEN | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| TB at CIN Sept 13 · Week 1 | CIN -3.5 | Win TB 27–33 CIN | Matches outlet record | 50.0% market opening price (archive), no margin | +1.00 |
| ARI at LAC · Week 1 · ARI +10.5 · Win | |||||
| GB at MIN · Week 1 · MIN -1.5 · Win | |||||
| MIA at LV Sept 13 · Week 1 | LV -3.5 | Win MIA 13–27 LV | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| WSH at PHI · Week 1 · WSH +4.5 · Win | |||||
| DAL at NYG · Week 1 · DAL -2.5 · Loss | |||||
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · DEN +2.5 · Loss | |||||
| DET at BUF · Week 2 · BUF -4.5 · Win | |||||
| CAR at ATL · Week 2 · CAR -2.5 · Win | |||||
| CIN at HOU Sept 20 · Week 2 | CIN +2.5 | Win CIN 20–6 HOU | Matches outlet record | 50.0% market opening price (archive), no margin | +1.00 |
| CLE at TB Sept 20 · Week 2 | TB -8.5 | Loss CLE 23–19 TB | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
| GB at NYJ Sept 20 · Week 2 | NYJ +3.5 | Win GB 20–17 NYJ | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| MIN at CHI · Week 2 · MIN +5.5 · Win | |||||
| NO at BAL Sept 20 · Week 2 | NO +8.5 | Win NO 24–17 BAL | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| PHI at TEN Sept 20 · Week 2 | PHI -7 | Loss PHI 24–20 TEN | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
| PIT at NE Sept 20 · Week 2 | PIT +5.5 | Loss PIT 3–20 NE | Matches outlet record | 50.0% market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| JAX at DEN Sept 20 · Week 2 | JAX +2.5 | Loss JAX 13–20 DEN | Matches outlet record | 48.9% market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV +7 · Win | |||||
| MIA at SF Sept 20 · Week 2 | MIA +13.5 | Loss MIA 13–35 SF | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
| SEA at ARI · Week 2 · SEA -4.5 · Win | |||||
| WSH at DAL · Week 2 · WSH +3.5 · Loss | |||||
| IND at KC · Week 2 · IND +6.5 · Win | |||||
| NYG at LAR · Week 2 · NYG +7 · Loss | |||||
| ATL at GB · Week 3 · ATL +6.5 · Win | |||||
| CAR at CLE Sept 27 · Week 3 | CAR -2.5 | Loss CAR 18–21 CLE | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
| CIN at PIT · Week 3 · CIN -3.5 · Loss | |||||
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · IND +2.5 · Win | |||||
| KC at MIA Sept 27 · Week 3 | KC -11.5 | Win KC 24–10 MIA | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| LAC at BUF Sept 27 · Week 3 | BUF -7 | Win LAC 16–24 BUF | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| NE at JAX Sept 27 · Week 3 | JAX -3 | Win NE 6–35 JAX | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| NYJ at DET Sept 27 · Week 3 | NYJ +6.5 | Loss NYJ 24–31 DET | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
| SEA at WSH Sept 27 · Week 3 | SEA -7 | Loss SEA 31–33 WSH | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
| TEN at NYG Sept 27 · Week 3 | NYG -3 | Win TEN 7–12 NYG | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| ARI at SF · Week 3 · SF -8.5 · Loss | |||||
| MIN at TB Sept 27 · Week 3 | MIN -1.5 | Win MIN 23–16 TB | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| BAL at DAL Sept 27 · Week 3 | BAL -3 | Push BAL 34–31 DAL | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | 0.00 |
| LV at NO Sept 27 · Week 3 | LV +3 | Win LV 35–27 NO | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| LAR at DEN Sept 27 · Week 3 | LAR -2.5 | Loss LAR 26–30 DEN | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
| PHI at CHI Sept 28 · Week 3 | PHI -3.5 | Loss PHI 7–27 CHI | Matches outlet record | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | −1.00 |
SU · +11.3 market-adjusted points · 50 picks · 2026
Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Cardinals at Giants · Cardinals at 49ers · Falcons at Packers · Falcons at Saints · Ravens at Falcons · Ravens at Cowboys · Bills at Rams · Panthers at Browns · Bears at Packers · Bengals at Dolphins · Bengals at Steelers · Browns at Jets · Cowboys at Texans · Broncos at Chargers · Broncos at 49ers · Lions at Cardinals · Lions at Panthers · Packers at Buccaneers · Texans at Colts · Texans at Titans · Colts at Steelers · Colts at Commanders · Jaguars at Bengals · Chiefs at Raiders · Chiefs at Dolphins · Chargers at Bills · Chargers at Seahawks · Rams at Broncos · Rams at Eagles · Raiders at Patriots · Raiders at Saints · Dolphins at Vikings · Vikings at Saints · Vikings at Buccaneers · Patriots at Bills · Patriots at Jaguars · Giants at Commanders · Jets at Bears · Jets at Lions · Eagles at Bears · Eagles at Jaguars · Steelers at Browns · Seahawks at Commanders · 49ers at Seahawks · Buccaneers at Cowboys · Titans at Ravens · Titans at Giants. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Oct 6, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
50 picks behind it as of Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET: the same picks as rows 1–50 of the table under the badge above.
Underdogs ATS · 15–10 · 2026 · field 46.2%
Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Broncos at 49ers · Colts at Commanders · Jaguars at Bengals · Chargers at Seahawks · Jets at Bears · Titans at Ravens. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Sept 29, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA · Week 1 · NE +3.5 · Win | |||
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF +3.5 · Win | |||
| BAL at IND · Week 1 · IND +3.5 · Loss | |||
| BUF at HOU · Week 1 · HOU +1.5 · Loss | |||
| CHI at CAR · Week 1 · CAR +2.5 · Loss | |||
| NO at DET · Week 1 · NO +7 · Win | |||
| NYJ at TEN · Week 1 · NYJ +1.5 · Win | |||
| ARI at LAC · Week 1 · ARI +10.5 · Win | |||
| WSH at PHI · Week 1 · WSH +4.5 · Win | |||
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · DEN +2.5 · Loss | |||
| CIN at HOU · Week 2 · CIN +2.5 · Win | |||
| GB at NYJ · Week 2 · NYJ +3.5 · Win | |||
| MIN at CHI · Week 2 · MIN +5.5 · Win | |||
| NO at BAL · Week 2 · NO +8.5 · Win | |||
| PIT at NE · Week 2 · PIT +5.5 · Loss | |||
| JAX at DEN · Week 2 · JAX +2.5 · Loss | |||
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV +7 · Win | |||
| MIA at SF · Week 2 · MIA +13.5 · Loss | |||
| WSH at DAL · Week 2 · WSH +3.5 · Loss | |||
| IND at KC · Week 2 · IND +6.5 · Win | |||
| NYG at LAR · Week 2 · NYG +7 · Loss | |||
| ATL at GB · Week 3 · ATL +6.5 · Win | |||
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · IND +2.5 · Win | |||
| NYJ at DET · Week 3 · NYJ +6.5 · Loss | |||
| LV at NO · Week 3 · LV +3 · Win | |||