Bleeding Green Nation · NFL 2026
Dave Mangels: the picks behind each badge, NFL 2026
Every pick behind each of the 4 current badges on the profile of Dave Mangels, oldest first, losses included. The profile shows up to 10 picks per badge; this page has all of them, with the rule, the picks each badge can use and the outlet pages.
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. Badge rules · How badges work
Recording evidence: Recorded before kickoff (we saw the pick before the game), Timestamped before kickoff (the platform's time stamp or a web archive copy), Matches outlet record (read after the game; the outlet's published record matches our recount), Added after the game (can only lower a record).
- 2 outright upsets called · of 3 underdog picks · 2026
- Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8%
- 14 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform
- Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78
Season badges
2 outright upsets called · of 3 underdog picks · 2026
Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
Picked 2 underdogs to win outright that did, out of 3 straight-up underdog picks.
- Period
- 2026
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 15.9 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 36 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Straight-up picks on the underdog that won outright. The underdog is set by the market at the time of the pick: a decisive moneyline (+105 or longer), or else the team getting points. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10, always shown with the number of underdog picks. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | CLE (+121) | Loss CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 5 d before |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | BAL (+140) | Win BAL 30–23 ATL | Platform time stamp, 5 d 8 h before |
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF (+144) | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 2 h 59 min before |
Outlet pages: Bleeding Green Nation, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: 2 outright upsets called · of 3 underdog picks · 2026 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-mangels/#t-zu-0b4bff184e95c2a2
Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8%
Recorded before kickoff
The correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance on record: BUF over LAR in Week 5, when the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- ≈8 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 32.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 63 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- One per forecaster, shown on the profile: the correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance (below 50%). Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 3–3 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8% · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-mangels/#t-zu-8a74b31d595f2906
14 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform
Timestamped before kickoff (platform)
Graded picks with a time before kickoff set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. This says nothing about results.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- This is a fact about how the picks were recorded, not about results. Held now by 56 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- The number of graded picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. Steps: 10, 30, 100 and 300. It says nothing about results. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Only picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Oct 8 · Week 5 | DAL (-400) | Loss TB 24–16 DAL | Platform time stamp, 2 d 8 h before |
| PHI at JAX Oct 11 · Week 5 | JAX (-277) | Win PHI 17–19 JAX | Platform time stamp, 4 d 21 h before |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | CHI (-141) | Loss CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 5 d before |
| CIN at MIA Oct 11 · Week 5 | CIN (-312) | Win CIN 31–24 MIA | Platform time stamp, 5 d before |
| MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5 | MIN (-122) | Win MIN 23–13 NO | Platform time stamp, 5 d before |
| HOU at TEN Oct 11 · Week 5 | HOU (-278) | Win HOU 26–3 TEN | Platform time stamp, 5 d before |
| LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5 | NE (-176) | Win LV 17–45 NE | Platform time stamp, 5 d before |
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | PIT (-130) | Win IND 22–34 PIT | Platform time stamp, 5 d before |
| CLE at NYJ · Week 5 · CLE · Loss | |||
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | WSH (-166) | Push NYG 27–27 WSH | Platform time stamp, 5 d before |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | DEN (-174) | Win DEN 23–17 LAC | Platform time stamp, 5 d 4 h before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SEA (-135) | Loss SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 5 d 4 h before |
| DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5 | DET (-218) | Win DET 45–21 ARI | Platform time stamp, 5 d 4 h before |
| BAL at ATL · Week 5 · BAL · Win | |||
Outlet pages: Bleeding Green Nation, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: 14 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-mangels/#t-zu-e87cfa869571a90a
Weekly badges
Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78
Recorded before kickoff
Picked BUF to beat LAR straight up in Week 5; the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance. 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 5, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 5, Oct 13, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 3–3 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dave-mangels/#t-zu-f51d934947150156