ESPN · NFL 2026
Dan Graziano: the picks behind each badge, NFL 2026
Every pick behind each of the 8 current badges on the profile of Dan Graziano, oldest first, losses included. The profile shows up to 10 picks per badge; this page has all of them, with the rule, the picks each badge can use and the outlet pages.
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. Badge rules · How badges work
Recording evidence: Recorded before kickoff (we saw the pick before the game), Timestamped before kickoff (the platform's time stamp or a web archive copy), Matches outlet record (read after the game; the outlet's published record matches our recount), Added after the game (can only lower a record).
- Right against the crowd · SU · 8 times · e.g. LV at LAC, 20 of 22 others wrong
- 8 outright upsets called · of 19 underdog picks · 2026
- Best call: LV over LAC · Week 2 · market 27.4%
- 15 picks timestamped before kickoff · web archive copy
- Rams games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 53.3%
- Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78
- Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23
- Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23
Season badges
Right against the crowd · SU · 8 times · e.g. LV at LAC, 20 of 22 others wrong
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Matches the outlet's published record
Right 8 times straight up when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. LV at LAC: 20 of 22 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 20 of 22 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 13.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right. Counted over the season. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10 times. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAR Sept 10 · Week 1 | SF | Win SF 27–7 LAR | Matches outlet record |
| BUF at HOU Sept 13 · Week 1 | BUF | Win BUF 36–31 HOU | Matches outlet record |
| DEN at KC Sept 14 · Week 1 | KC | Win DEN 10–31 KC | Matches outlet record |
| LV at LAC Sept 20 · Week 2 | LV | Win LV 26–14 LAC | Matches outlet record |
| LAR at DEN Sept 27 · Week 3 | DEN | Win LAR 26–30 DEN | Matches outlet record |
| ARI at NYG Oct 4 · Week 4 | NYG | Win ARI 24–36 NYG | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| ATL at NO Oct 5 · Week 4 | ATL | Win ATL 45–24 NO | Archive copy, 3 d before · copy |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Matches outlet record |
Outlet pages: ESPN, Week 1 · ESPN, Week 2 · ESPN, Week 3 · ESPN, Week 4 · ESPN, Week 5.
Outlet record check: ESPN season record on 2026-10-14 (SU): published 47-31, our recount 47-31-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Right against the crowd · SU · 8 times · e.g. LV at LAC, 20 of 22 others wrong · hunchmeter.com/experts/dan-graziano/#t-zu-0464dd7802dda971
8 outright upsets called · of 19 underdog picks · 2026
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Recorded before kickoffMatches the outlet's published record
Picked 8 underdogs to win outright that did, out of 19 straight-up underdog picks.
- Period
- 2026
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 15.9 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 36 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Straight-up picks on the underdog that won outright. The underdog is set by the market at the time of the pick: a decisive moneyline (+105 or longer), or else the team getting points. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10, always shown with the number of underdog picks. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA Sept 9 · Week 1 | NE | Loss NE 10–13 SEA | Matches outlet record |
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF · Win | |||
| NYJ at TEN Sept 13 · Week 1 | NYJ | Win NYJ 23–10 TEN | Matches outlet record |
| TB at CIN Sept 13 · Week 1 | TB | Loss TB 27–33 CIN | Matches outlet record |
| GB at MIN Sept 13 · Week 1 | GB | Loss GB 22–39 MIN | Matches outlet record |
| GB at NYJ Sept 20 · Week 2 | NYJ | Loss GB 20–17 NYJ | Matches outlet record |
| JAX at DEN Sept 20 · Week 2 | JAX | Loss JAX 13–20 DEN | Matches outlet record |
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV · Win | |||
| TEN at NYG Sept 27 · Week 3 | TEN | Loss TEN 7–12 NYG | Matches outlet record |
| MIN at TB Sept 27 · Week 3 | TB | Loss MIN 23–16 TB | Matches outlet record |
| LAR at DEN · Week 3 · DEN · Win | |||
| ARI at NYG · Week 4 · NYG · Win | |||
| JAX at CIN Oct 4 · Week 4 | JAX | Win JAX 22–17 CIN | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| DEN at SF Oct 4 · Week 4 | DEN | Loss DEN 14–24 SF | Archive copy, 1 d 20 h before · copy |
| ATL at NO · Week 4 · ATL · Win | |||
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | IND | Loss IND 22–34 PIT | Matches outlet record |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | LAC | Loss DEN 23–17 LAC | Matches outlet record |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Matches outlet record |
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 5 h 45 min before |
Outlet pages: ESPN, Week 1 · ESPN, Week 2 · ESPN, Week 3 · ESPN, Week 4 · ESPN, Week 5.
Outlet record check: ESPN season record on 2026-10-14 (SU): published 47-31, our recount 47-31-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: 8 outright upsets called · of 19 underdog picks · 2026 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dan-graziano/#t-zu-400ff68c54f1e35c
Best call: LV over LAC · Week 2 · market 27.4%
Matches the outlet's published record
The correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance on record: LV over LAC in Week 2, when the market gave LV a 27.4% chance.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- ≈8 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 32.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 63 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- One per forecaster, shown on the profile: the correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance (below 50%). Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 4–4 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Best call: LV over LAC · Week 2 · market 27.4% · hunchmeter.com/experts/dan-graziano/#t-zu-59964f473ebc7b06
15 picks timestamped before kickoff · web archive copy
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)
Graded picks with a time before kickoff set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. This says nothing about results.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- This is a fact about how the picks were recorded, not about results. Held now by 56 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- The number of graded picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. Steps: 10, 30, 100 and 300. It says nothing about results. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Only picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND at WSH Oct 4 · Week 4 | IND | Win IND 30–13 WSH | Archive copy, 1 d 13 h before · copy |
| ARI at NYG · Week 4 · NYG · Win | |||
| DAL at HOU Oct 4 · Week 4 | HOU | Loss DAL 34–30 HOU | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| GB at TB Oct 4 · Week 4 | GB | Win GB 17–14 TB | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| JAX at CIN · Week 4 · JAX · Win | |||
| LAR at PHI Oct 4 · Week 4 | LAR | Win LAR 24–20 PHI | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| NE at BUF Oct 4 · Week 4 | BUF | Loss NE 29–26 BUF | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| NYJ at CHI Oct 4 · Week 4 | CHI | Win NYJ 12–23 CHI | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| TEN at BAL Oct 4 · Week 4 | BAL | Win TEN 18–24 BAL | Archive copy, 1 d 17 h before · copy |
| MIA at MIN Oct 4 · Week 4 | MIN | Win MIA 10–15 MIN | Archive copy, 1 d 20 h before · copy |
| DEN at SF · Week 4 · DEN · Loss | |||
| KC at LV Oct 4 · Week 4 | KC | Win KC 30–27 LV | Archive copy, 1 d 20 h before · copy |
| LAC at SEA Oct 4 · Week 4 | SEA | Win LAC 23–30 SEA | Archive copy, 1 d 20 h before · copy |
| DET at CAR Oct 4 · Week 4 | DET | Loss DET 26–32 CAR | Archive copy, 2 d before · copy |
| ATL at NO · Week 4 · ATL · Win | |||
Outlet pages: ESPN, Week 4.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: 15 picks timestamped before kickoff · web archive copy · hunchmeter.com/experts/dan-graziano/#t-zu-2fb9978f8be8a425
Rams games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 53.3%
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Recorded before kickoffMatches the outlet's published record
5–0 straight up in Los Angeles Rams games (5 of 5 decided), 2026; the field average in this category is 53.3%.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- field average 53.3%
- How rare
- ≈1 in 5 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 4.2 of 23 got it on average. Held now by 6 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Picks in one team's games on one market: at least 5 decided, the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval above the base rate (50% against the spread and on totals; the average market chance of the picks straight up), and a share above the field in that team's games. A record only, with no ranking. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF · Win | |||
| NYG at LAR Sept 21 · Week 2 | LAR | Win NYG 6–28 LAR | Matches outlet record |
| LAR at DEN · Week 3 · DEN · Win | |||
| LAR at PHI · Week 4 · LAR · Win | |||
| BUF at LAR · Week 5 · BUF · Win | |||
Outlet pages: ESPN, Week 1 · ESPN, Week 2 · ESPN, Week 3 · ESPN, Week 4 · ESPN, Week 5.
Outlet record check: ESPN season record on 2026-10-14 (SU): published 47-31, our recount 47-31-1.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Rams games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 53.3% · hunchmeter.com/experts/dan-graziano/#t-zu-5a95a42f557d5437
Weekly badges
Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78
Recorded before kickoff
Picked BUF to beat LAR straight up in Week 5; the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance. 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 5, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 5, Oct 13, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 19–19 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dan-graziano/#t-zu-6ecd44d23e8de9c5
Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23
Matches the outlet's published record
Picked LV to beat LAC straight up in Week 2; the market gave LV a 27.4% chance. 3 of 23 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 2, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 2, Sept 22, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 3 of 23 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 4–4 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dan-graziano/#t-zu-892e1b3669105690
Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23
Matches the outlet's published record
Picked SF to beat LAR straight up in Week 1; the market gave SF a 36.1% chance. 8 of 23 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 1, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 1, Sept 15, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 8 of 23 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 1–1 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 · hunchmeter.com/experts/dan-graziano/#t-zu-7860f27fc5c83ec9
Held at the time of earlier picks
Badges Dan Graziano held when making picks shown on game pages, as they stood at that moment, with the picks behind each. Badges are recounted after every game, so these may differ from the current ones.
Division games · SU 10–7 · 2026 · field 46.8%
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Cardinals at 49ers · Falcons at Saints · Bears at Packers · Bengals at Steelers · Broncos at Chargers · Texans at Colts · Texans at Titans · Chiefs at Raiders · Patriots at Bills · Giants at Commanders · Steelers at Browns · 49ers at Seahawks. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Oct 6, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF · Win | |||
| GB at MIN · Week 1 · GB · Loss | |||
| WSH at PHI Sept 13 · Week 1 | PHI | Win WSH 22–24 PHI | Matches outlet record |
| DAL at NYG Sept 13 · Week 1 | DAL | Loss DAL 20–28 NYG | Matches outlet record |
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · KC · Win | |||
| CAR at ATL Sept 20 · Week 2 | CAR | Win CAR 34–3 ATL | Matches outlet record |
| MIN at CHI Sept 20 · Week 2 | CHI | Loss MIN 9–3 CHI | Matches outlet record |
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV · Win | |||
| SEA at ARI Sept 20 · Week 2 | SEA | Win SEA 31–7 ARI | Matches outlet record |
| WSH at DAL Sept 20 · Week 2 | DAL | Win WSH 20–37 DAL | Matches outlet record |
| CIN at PIT Sept 27 · Week 3 | CIN | Loss CIN 27–30 PIT | Matches outlet record |
| HOU at IND Sept 27 · Week 3 | HOU | Loss HOU 17–19 IND | Matches outlet record |
| ARI at SF Sept 27 · Week 3 | SF | Win ARI 30–36 SF | Matches outlet record |
| PIT at CLE Oct 1 · Week 4 | PIT | Loss PIT 24–27 CLE | Matches outlet record |
| NE at BUF · Week 4 · BUF · Loss | |||
| KC at LV · Week 4 · KC · Win | |||
| ATL at NO · Week 4 · ATL · Win | |||
Prime-time games · SU 6–4 · 2026 · field 48.9%
Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Falcons at Saints · Lions at Panthers · Steelers at Browns. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Sept 29, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA · Week 1 · NE · Loss | |||
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF · Win | |||
| DAL at NYG · Week 1 · DAL · Loss | |||
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · KC · Win | |||
| DET at BUF Sept 17 · Week 2 | BUF | Win DET 31–41 BUF | Matches outlet record |
| IND at KC Sept 20 · Week 2 | KC | Win IND 30–33 KC | Matches outlet record |
| NYG at LAR · Week 2 · LAR · Win | |||
| ATL at GB Sept 24 · Week 3 | GB | Loss ATL 35–14 GB | Matches outlet record |
| LAR at DEN · Week 3 · DEN · Win | |||
| PHI at CHI Sept 28 · Week 3 | PHI | Loss PHI 7–27 CHI | Matches outlet record |
SU · +4.8 market-adjusted points · 50 picks · 2026
Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Matches the outlet's published record
Held when the picks on these game pages were made: Cardinals at 49ers · Falcons at Packers · Ravens at Falcons · Ravens at Cowboys · Panthers at Falcons · Panthers at Browns · Bears at Packers · Bengals at Texans · Bengals at Dolphins · Bengals at Steelers · Browns at Jets · Browns at Buccaneers · Broncos at Chargers · Lions at Cardinals · Lions at Bills · Packers at Jets · Texans at Colts · Texans at Titans · Colts at Chiefs · Colts at Steelers · Jaguars at Broncos · Chiefs at Dolphins · Chargers at Bills · Rams at Broncos · Raiders at Chargers · Raiders at Patriots · Raiders at Saints · Dolphins at 49ers · Vikings at Bears · Vikings at Saints · Vikings at Buccaneers · Patriots at Jaguars · Saints at Ravens · Giants at Rams · Giants at Commanders · Jets at Lions · Eagles at Bears · Eagles at Jaguars · Eagles at Titans · Steelers at Patriots · Seahawks at Cardinals · Seahawks at Commanders · 49ers at Seahawks · Buccaneers at Cowboys · Titans at Giants · Commanders at Cowboys. As it stood at the latest of those picks (Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET): period 2026, counting games whose result was known by Oct 6, 12:15 a.m. ET. Each game page shows how many picks were behind it at its own pick.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence | Implied win chance used for scoring | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA · Week 1 · NE · Loss | |||||
| SF at LAR · Week 1 · SF · Win | |||||
| ATL at PIT Sept 13 · Week 1 | PIT | Win ATL 13–20 PIT | Matches outlet record | 55.4% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.81 |
| BAL at IND Sept 13 · Week 1 | BAL | Win BAL 41–23 IND | Matches outlet record | 63.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.56 |
| BUF at HOU · Week 1 · BUF · Win | |||||
| CHI at CAR Sept 13 · Week 1 | CHI | Win CHI 59–37 CAR | Matches outlet record | 56.0% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.79 |
| CLE at JAX Sept 13 · Week 1 | JAX | Win CLE 10–34 JAX | Matches outlet record | 74.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.35 |
| NO at DET Sept 13 · Week 1 | DET | Win NO 30–31 DET | Matches outlet record | 75.5% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.32 |
| NYJ at TEN · Week 1 · NYJ · Win | |||||
| TB at CIN · Week 1 · TB · Loss | |||||
| ARI at LAC Sept 13 · Week 1 | LAC | Loss ARI 26–14 LAC | Matches outlet record | 81.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| GB at MIN · Week 1 · GB · Loss | |||||
| MIA at LV Sept 13 · Week 1 | LV | Win MIA 13–27 LV | Matches outlet record | 60.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.64 |
| WSH at PHI · Week 1 · PHI · Win | |||||
| DAL at NYG · Week 1 · DAL · Loss | |||||
| DEN at KC · Week 1 · KC · Win | |||||
| DET at BUF · Week 2 · BUF · Win | |||||
| CAR at ATL · Week 2 · CAR · Win | |||||
| CIN at HOU Sept 20 · Week 2 | HOU | Loss CIN 20–6 HOU | Matches outlet record | 56.0% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| CLE at TB Sept 20 · Week 2 | TB | Loss CLE 23–19 TB | Matches outlet record | 71.7% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| GB at NYJ · Week 2 · NYJ · Loss | |||||
| MIN at CHI · Week 2 · CHI · Loss | |||||
| NO at BAL Sept 20 · Week 2 | BAL | Loss NO 24–17 BAL | Matches outlet record | 75.2% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | −1.00 |
| PHI at TEN Sept 20 · Week 2 | PHI | Win PHI 24–20 TEN | Matches outlet record | 65.9% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.52 |
| PIT at NE Sept 20 · Week 2 | NE | Win PIT 3–20 NE | Matches outlet record | 68.5% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.46 |
| JAX at DEN · Week 2 · JAX · Loss | |||||
| LV at LAC · Week 2 · LV · Win | |||||
| MIA at SF Sept 20 · Week 2 | SF | Win MIA 13–35 SF | Matches outlet record | 81.3% · favorite market opening price (archive), no margin | +0.23 |
| SEA at ARI · Week 2 · SEA · Win | |||||
| WSH at DAL · Week 2 · DAL · Win | |||||
| IND at KC · Week 2 · KC · Win | |||||
| NYG at LAR · Week 2 · LAR · Win | |||||
| ATL at GB · Week 3 · GB · Loss | |||||
| CAR at CLE Sept 27 · Week 3 | CAR | Loss CAR 18–21 CLE | Matches outlet record | 57.0% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | −1.00 |
| HOU at IND · Week 3 · HOU · Loss | |||||
| TEN at NYG · Week 3 · TEN · Loss | |||||
| MIN at TB · Week 3 · TB · Loss | |||||
| BAL at DAL Sept 27 · Week 3 | BAL | Win BAL 34–31 DAL | Matches outlet record | 61.5% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | +0.63 |
| LV at NO Sept 27 · Week 3 | NO | Loss LV 35–27 NO | Matches outlet record | 61.6% · favorite CBS Sports page moneyline, both sides | −1.00 |
| LAR at DEN · Week 3 · DEN · Win | |||||
| PIT at CLE · Week 4 · PIT · Loss | |||||
| IND at WSH · Week 4 · IND · Win | |||||
| ARI at NYG · Week 4 · NYG · Win | |||||
| DAL at HOU · Week 4 · HOU · Loss | |||||
| JAX at CIN · Week 4 · JAX · Win | |||||
| LAR at PHI · Week 4 · LAR · Win | |||||
| NYJ at CHI · Week 4 · CHI · Win | |||||
| DEN at SF · Week 4 · DEN · Loss | |||||
| KC at LV · Week 4 · KC · Win | |||||
| ATL at NO · Week 4 · ATL · Win | |||||