Gridiron Experts · NFL 2026
Adam Henley: the picks behind each badge, NFL 2026
Every pick behind each of the 3 current badges on the profile of Adam Henley, oldest first, losses included. The profile shows up to 10 picks per badge; this page has all of them, with the rule, the picks each badge can use and the outlet pages.
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. Badge rules · How badges work
Recording evidence: Recorded before kickoff (we saw the pick before the game), Timestamped before kickoff (the platform's time stamp or a web archive copy), Matches outlet record (read after the game; the outlet's published record matches our recount), Added after the game (can only lower a record).
- 30 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform
- Right against the crowd · ATS · 4 times · e.g. TB at DAL, 36 of 44 others wrong
- ATS · +4.9 market-adjusted points · 15 picks · 2026
Season badges
30 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform
Timestamped before kickoff (platform)
Graded picks with a time before kickoff set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. This says nothing about results.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- This is a fact about how the picks were recorded, not about results. Held now by 56 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- The number of graded picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. Steps: 10, 30, 100 and 300. It says nothing about results. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Only picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Oct 8 · Week 5 | TB +8.5 | Win TB 24–16 DAL | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| TB at DAL Oct 8 · Week 5 | DAL (-394) | Loss TB 24–16 DAL | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| PHI at JAX Oct 11 · Week 5 | PHI +7.5 | Win PHI 17–19 JAX | Platform time stamp, 1 d 18 h before |
| PHI at JAX Oct 11 · Week 5 | JAX (-330) | Win PHI 17–19 JAX | Platform time stamp, 1 d 18 h before |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | CHI -1 | Loss CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| CIN at MIA Oct 11 · Week 5 | CIN -6.5 | Win CIN 31–24 MIA | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5 | MIN -1.5 | Win MIN 23–13 NO | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| HOU at TEN Oct 11 · Week 5 | TEN +7.5 | Loss HOU 26–3 TEN | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5 | NE -3.5 | Win LV 17–45 NE | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | IND +3 | Loss IND 22–34 PIT | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ -1.5 | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYG +4.5 | Win NYG 27–27 WSH | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | CHI (-109) | Loss CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| CIN at MIA Oct 11 · Week 5 | CIN (-285) | Win CIN 31–24 MIA | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5 | MIN (-127) | Win MIN 23–13 NO | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| HOU at TEN Oct 11 · Week 5 | HOU (-335) | Win HOU 26–3 TEN | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5 | NE (-176) | Win LV 17–45 NE | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | PIT (-139) | Win IND 22–34 PIT | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ (-127) | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | WSH (-170) | Push NYG 27–27 WSH | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | Under 45.5 | Win CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | Over 39.5 | Loss CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | LAC +3.5 | Loss DEN 23–17 LAC | Platform time stamp, 2 d before |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | LAC (+168) | Loss DEN 23–17 LAC | Platform time stamp, 2 d before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SF +3.5 | Win SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 2 d 1 h before |
| DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5 | ARI +5.5 | Loss DET 45–21 ARI | Platform time stamp, 2 d 1 h before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SEA (-160) | Loss SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 2 d 1 h before |
| DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5 | DET (-233) | Win DET 45–21 ARI | Platform time stamp, 2 d 1 h before |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | BAL +3.5 | Win BAL 30–23 ATL | Platform time stamp, 2 d 5 h before |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL (-161) | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Platform time stamp, 2 d 5 h before |
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5 · Gridiron Experts, Week 5 · Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: 30 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform · hunchmeter.com/experts/adam-henley/#t-zu-8700513fc66ea41d
Right against the crowd · ATS · 4 times · e.g. TB at DAL, 36 of 44 others wrong
Timestamped before kickoff (platform)
Right 4 times against the spread when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. TB at DAL: 36 of 44 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 36 of 44 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈6 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 9.2 of 16 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right. Counted over the season. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10 times. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL · Week 5 · TB +8.5 · Win | |||
| LV at NE · Week 5 · NE -3.5 · Win | |||
| CLE at NYJ · Week 5 · NYJ -1.5 · Win | |||
| BAL at ATL · Week 5 · BAL +3.5 · Win | |||
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Right against the crowd · ATS · 4 times · e.g. TB at DAL, 36 of 44 others wrong · hunchmeter.com/experts/adam-henley/#t-zu-dc40bf57c0168251
ATS · +4.9 market-adjusted points · 15 picks · 2026
Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
+4.9 market-adjusted points over 15 against-the-spread picks in 2026: each pick counted as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week).
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.7 of 26 got it on average. Held now by 8 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Market-adjusted points over the season on one market: at least 15 scored picks (10 on totals) and at least +2.0 points in total. Each pick counts as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week): a win adds 1/p − 1, a loss takes away 1, a push counts 0. A straight-up pick with no two-sided price at that moment is left out; a spread or total pick with no price on its own line counts at even odds. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence | Implied win chance used for scoring | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL · Week 5 · TB +8.5 · Win | |||||
| PHI at JAX · Week 5 · PHI +7.5 · Win | |||||
| CHI at GB · Week 5 · CHI -1 · Loss | |||||
| CIN at MIA · Week 5 · CIN -6.5 · Win | |||||
| MIN at NO · Week 5 · MIN -1.5 · Win | |||||
| HOU at TEN · Week 5 · TEN +7.5 · Loss | |||||
| LV at NE · Week 5 · NE -3.5 · Win | |||||
| IND at PIT · Week 5 · IND +3 · Loss | |||||
| CLE at NYJ · Week 5 · NYJ -1.5 · Win | |||||
| NYG at WSH · Week 5 · NYG +4.5 · Win | |||||
| DEN at LAC · Week 5 · LAC +3.5 · Loss | |||||
| SF at SEA · Week 5 · SF +3.5 · Win | |||||
| DET at ARI · Week 5 · ARI +5.5 · Loss | |||||
| BAL at ATL · Week 5 · BAL +3.5 · Win | |||||
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF +3.5 | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 2 h 57 min before | 51.6% our market reading, no margin | +0.94 |
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: ATS · +4.9 market-adjusted points · 15 picks · 2026 · hunchmeter.com/experts/adam-henley/#t-zu-3ef21cd804270e7c